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As an active trader in E-mini S&P 500 futures I can tell you the political binary futures contracts at PredictIt have much in common. Both require a trading strategy built on fundamental and technical analysis. I put a lot of effort into gauging how upcoming corporate and economic events will likely affect the securities markets and often just as much estimating the impact of political events during an election. The two markets are often intertwined, what happens politically certainly has an impact on security prices and interest rates.
That dependence of financial instrument pricing on political outcomes allows me to do some small hedging at PredictIt. Concerned that a democratic Congress if elected will lead to lower crude oil pricing? Then buy the No contracts for a Republican House and Senate. I've even bought Trump contracts in the last election to protect against the likely loss of EV credits and changes in health insurance if he won the election.
Just today, part of the blame for the market sell off is an unwinding of the "Trump Trade". The trading of political futures at PredictIt.com offers a unique way to directly hedge against that development and would be dearly missed.
