Comment Text:
In response to the Commission's request for public comment, attached is the article "Minute-by-Minute: Financial Markets’ Reaction to the 2020 U.S. Election" by Matthew DeHaven, Hannah Firestone, and Chris Webster.
The authors use minutely PredictIt price data from Election Day 2020 to estimate the probabilities for the presidential election outcome, and compare those to corresponding minute-by-minute data from various financial markets. "The striking correlations show that prediction markets and financial markets are indeed tightly interlinked."
The article authors are not party to this comment.
