Comment Text:
political contracts are not "gaming."
This is not about chance, or randomness. I spend _hours_ each day on research - polling, demographic data, historical voting, correlations, opinion pieces, local knowledge - and I buy and sell my contracts based on that information.
The result of these markets is valuable. It shows the common wisdom about expected outcomes in a way that is different from a poll or an election analysis. It is, of course, not always right - but it's a valuable data point.
I've bought and sold thousands of dollars of contracts over the last decade, and I'm up about 40%. This isn't a money-making enterprise for me. It's about the research, the analysis, learning from my mistakes - and being right.
