Comment Text:
Prediction markets have been identified as being more accurate than polling (Berg 2008, Rothschild 2009) and econometric models (Graefe 2011). This ban would prevent the American public from having a useful tool to stay informed.
Unlike gambling and like investments, prediction markets focus on long-term and predictable events with real-world significance. I also fail to see how prediction markets are materially different from financial derivatives like options.
I believe a well-regulated and consumer-friendly prediction industry would be a healthy way to keep the American public informed. I think the government's time would be better spent focusing on closing the loopholes that enable destructive one-day fantasy betting industry, rather than the relatively small and motivated prediction market community.
