Comment Text:
I run a blog with a recurring column on prediction markets. I believe they are a socially valuable technology that might one day create a parallel system of expertise that could help fight misinformation and contribute to decision-making on important issues.
In my opinion and that of many of the experts who I have interviewed, one of the major barriers to adoption is regulatory hurdles. Allowing Kalshi to make this market would be a strong and encouraging signal to the entire field.
While I appreciate the concerns on the other side, there are already many unregulated offshore prediction markets using cryptocurrency. It is in the best interests of the US consumer to have a legal and well-regulated side to the sector as well which remains competitive with its unregulated rivals. Political markets are the bread and butter of modern prediction markets and have been endorsed by leading political pundits like Nate Silver. Allowing Kalshi to have these markets would keep it competitive in this way and let it remain a more relevant part of the prediction market landscape.
I have written a FAQ that addresses many common concerns about prediction markets, which you can find at https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq
