Comment Text:
Prediction markets with substantial backing have repeatedly shown to provide directional guidance towards public opinion, often better than any kind of polling. With a fragmented voter base, social media influences polling information has become sometimes unreliable and is still expensive to obtain.
Prediction markets have the opportunity to make public opinion visible on a variety of subjects but congressional elections are an excellent place to study and test assumptions, as there are very defined events to measure the accuracy.
I would very much welcome if the CFTC allowed such limited markets as proposed by Kalshi to make them more official, get them out of the shadows and advance academic research.
