Comment Text:
Prediction markets such as KalshiEX perform a valuable service to the public. American voters and businesses depend on accurate forecasts of the future political climate to make informed decisions about their finances and well-being. Media polling is increasingly unreliable; who can forget Donald Trump's shocking election to the presidency when the papers gave him <10% odds? Such polls are likely to fare even worse in the future, as representative populations become harder to sample and bots become more capable of falsifying human identities.
Prediction markets sidestep the bluster and partisanship of the news cycle; their forecasts draw upon a massive well of hard data and the collective wisdom of hundreds of participants. Research proves that such forecasts are more accurate and responsive than those of any traditional pollster, while rewarding and amplifying the most insightful and comprehensive predictions.
It's invaluable to me as an American citizen to have a reliable gauge of what my future Congress is going to look like. How will it be different? Will it be a better, or worse, time to start a business? To send my children to college? Will it affect the outlook for the stocks in my retirement portfolio, or the healthcare options for someone I love? I need to have a dependable, accountable basis for these decisions, and prediction markets like Kalshi provide that. As a result, I urge the CFTC to approve Kalshi's filing. Thank you for your consideration.
