Comment Text:
I would encourage all members of the CFTC, and of government generally, to participate in prediction markets on any kind of trial basis.
In my experience, and in several studies that have been conducted, prediction markets are excellent at gathering all bits of information from all sources that touch the market to make the most informed, most accurate estimate of a likely outcome possible. They perform no worse than public opinion, and often perform better than the predictions of a single expert (because they cost-average the opinions of *all* the experts, since betters who bet based on an expert's opinion all participate.)
Prediction markets could be quite powerful and transformative in democracy for making fully informed, citizen-participating predictions about policy or election outcomes, and thus help inform decisionmaking in all parts of government.
Kalshi is not the only site where these claims have been tested and proven. PredictIt, in my opinion, is an even better site that *did* allow predictors to use small sums of money to participate in election markets, and they have published their results.
Manifold and Metaculus are additional sites where election markets are active, although no money is won there based on a participant's predictions. Nevertheless, they both represent very informed sources of opinion on near-future outcomes.
Please participate in this new, exciting, and vastly less politically polarized way to participate in our electoral process and the run-up to an election. Please help lead the charge for our country to continue to set the world example of citizen participation in democracy. Thank you!
