Comment Text:
I am a former professional market-maker and current tech founder writing in support of election markets on Kalshi. Here are a few of my reasons:
- They are the only pure hedge to elections that have a massive impact on markets. Election markets improve the quality of the price signals from existing markets, enabling market participants to tease out how much of current valuations derive from political expectations vs underlying economic reality.
- These markets have existed for a long time, for the public interest -- dating back to the 1988 presidential election. Their characteristics are well understood.
- Markets like Betfair already afford for deep liquidity in election prediction. These markets are not regulated by the CFTC, and it would be better for market health and safety for there to be a regulated election market.
- Election markets serve as an additional data point for politicians and statisticians to gauge how the election is going, enabling them to make better predictions and decisions. Prediction markets move faster than polls, enabling savvy strategists to adapt their messaging to express the will of the people.
- In a time where the foundations of our democracy are being questioned, a real-money probabilistic forecast will act as a protective force against accusations of impropriety. More information and more transparency will help us speak more precisely.
