Comment Text:
It would be very unfortunate to see the CFTC disallow futures platforms such as PredictIt.org. PredictIt.org (and similar platforms) provide the general public free access to relative prices for various outcomes on elections. The prices embody far more information than that obtainable by a set of polls. The information provided to the general public in the form of a price is real-time and doesn't feature the lag of several days that are a feature of traditional political polling.
Individuals, organizations, businesses, and political campaigns have a legitimate stake in the availability of predictive information regarding political outcomes. Look no further than the amount political campaigns spend on polling. Platforms like PredictIt.org have the potential to substantially lower the cost to compete in elections, making political office more accessible to more people.
Of course, in able to make this relatively high-quality information (high-quality relative to conventional polling), people must be free to participate in the voluntary trading of contracts tied to various political outcomes. People's voluntary participation in these markets produce a highly positive externality for society in the form of information. It would be tragic and misguided to deny society that good by prohibiting the voluntary participation in these markets.
