Comment Text:
Dear Commodity Futures Trading Commission,
I strongly oppose the proposed rule classifying election futures markets like PredictIt as "gaming." This mischaracterization overlooks their significant value and public benefit.
PredictIt, operating for nearly a decade, has established itself as a prominent prediction market. Its crowdsourced probabilistic forecasting model has proven valuable for researchers, media, and the public. Key points to consider:
1. Accuracy: These markets often outperform traditional polling in forecasting accuracy, especially early in election cycles.
2. Promoting factual information: Participation encourages users to seek out and utilize accurate information, countering misinformation trends.
3. Research value: Anonymized trade data contributes to academic understanding of political forecasting.
4. Responsible limits: The $850 cap per user per contract prevents market manipulation.
5. Educational impact: These markets increase engagement with and understanding of political processes.
Classifying these platforms as "gaming" ignores the informed decision-making and analysis that participants invest. Unlike typical gambling, success here is based on knowledge of complex political and social factors.
I urge the CFTC to reconsider this proposal and recognize the unique value of election futures markets. Banning them would be a significant loss for public discourse and our understanding of political dynamics.
Thank you for your consideration.
