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I have engaged in all kinds of gambling from Poker to trading stocks to sports betting. It has been a hobby that I spend disposable money on and make sure it's not something that ever impacts my life if I lose. I'm responsible and know that it's not investing, it's throw away money and if I win then I'll consider myself lucky and move on. I've never won any money long term with any form of gambling even though I would consider myself a pretty knowledgeable poker player and stock trader. The goal with most kinds of gambling is to find something with a positive expected value and risk what you're willing to lose but if the calculation is correct then you should win long term. Obviously my calculations have not often been correct but it's a fun exercise for those of us who enjoy it.
I don't know if I would consider prediction markets to be considered gambling or not. I'm sure for some people it is and for others it isn't. I do know there's an element of expected value to it because that's what I use to guide my decisions on where to place my money. I've been using Predictit.org for years and can confidently say this is the ONLY market that I've ever hard positive returns on my money and it's consistent.
Although I know prediction markets like Predictit are undergoing regulator scrutiny and are in danger of being outlawed in the United States entirely, I wouldn't consider myself to be informed on issue. I'm a layman on the subject. What I do know is that if it gets outlawed then I plan on continuing to participate in prediction markets through other venues that are available online with cryptocurrency. This is already what many other people are doing. Outlawing prediction markets is going to be about as practical as outlawing marijuana and Prohibition. People will find their own ways to operate and participate in the market. Wouldn't it be smarter to keep it legal, regulate it, and tax it accordingly?
I'm a progressive democrat and I definitely believe in government regulation. Regulations tend to exist for good reasons. I believe the prediction market is a market that should be legal AND regulated. There are many ways to minimize its negative impacts on society. Predictit has a great policy already built into their system that caps how much money a person can invest in a single market or contract. This is a great tool that can ensure most people won't over commit their capital to any single contract that may not work out in their favor. I'm sure there's other policies that exist on other market sites as well. Keeping this kind of market legal will help regulators and companies alike innovate in policies that can help keep the prediction market as safe as possible for its participants. I think this is a much more practical outcome rather than outlawing it which will result in the markets and participants operate outside of the the radar of regulators where sites will be less likely to regulate themselves and participants will be less protected from unscrupulous actors.
