Comment Text:
I am an academic researcher based in Oregon writing to express my concerns regarding the proposed ban on event prediction markets by the CFTC, specifically those pertaining to elections. I utilize Kalshi’s markets in many areas of my personal life, but election markets could be an added tool in my arsenal, potentially allowing me conduct empirical studies on voter behavior and political decision-making processes. These markets provide data for analyzing electoral trends and testing theoretical models in political science. For instance, after telling my research team about the benefits of Kalshi’s markets, they have the desire to use election contracts to study election outcomes more broadly and use as comparisons to traditional polling methods that are oftentimes quite inaccurate.
The proposed ban threatens to restrict access to critical data sources essential for advancing political research and informing evidence-based policymaking. Instead of restricting these markets, the Commission should be fostering collaboration between academia and market innovators to develop ethical guidelines and regulatory frameworks that support research integrity and academic freedom.
