Comment Text:
This proposed rule is a misguided attempt to shut down the harmless--and, indeed, in some ways beneficial--activity of small-time political event futures trading. For those, like me, who study and teach about elections and public opinion, there is real value in the insights into public opinion and prevailing wisdom provided by real-time, crowd-sourced political futures markets. Traders who "put their money where their mouth is"--even if only a small amount--provide a better signal about real public expectations than is available from punditry or polling alone. Moreover, the ability to make or lose small amounts of money by speculating on political outcomes promotes more citizen knowledge about, and engagement with, politics and current events. The attempt to ban political trading markets like PredictIt is a solution in search of a problem, and this rule would definitely do more harm than good.
