Comment Text:
I see no good reason to continue to hamper prediction markets. There is no law prohibiting them, they do not cause harm, and perhaps most importantly, they provide a valuable service for decisionmakers who need accurate consensus information about future events. I do not participate in any prediction markets myself, but I found them invaluable in assessing COVID-19 risk throughout the pandemic. Any developments that would help the prospects of prediction markets would not only be a net positive to US financial markets, but society as a whole. I believe Kalshi's political market will help stymie the ever-increasing political polarization going on in this country by giving policymakers an impartial tool to assess what would otherwise be the sort of partisan unsubstantiated claims that have become ubiquitous on television and social media. As the (paraphrased) adage goes: "A bet is a tax on baloney", and I don't think there's any disagreement that there's far too much baloney in politics.
