Comment Text:
I'm writing to support Kalshi's request to operate congressional control markets. As a financial market participant (professionally a portfolio manager at a macro hedge fund), knowing the market discounted probability of what party will control Congress is important information for accurately valuing financial assets. It's one thing to do the work to understand the economic impacts of a various party's political agenda (i.e. tax cuts, fiscal spending packages, etc) but without knowing the probability of which party will be in power this information is less useful. Of course without prediction markets on congressional control one can still make up their own probabilities by looking at polling data / making your own estimate, but having a liquid financial market price of that probability is a very important input to make sure that your probability in reasonable and not far afield from others in the market. Given the importance of government policy in economic outcomes, I think direct information from a financial instrument of what party will control Congress is extremely valuable to the market and in the public's interest to know and assess.
