Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jason Jurado, and I'm a trader and investor based in Arizona. I've spent years navigating financial markets, analyzing data, and making decisions based on the best information I can find. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). While I'm relatively new to trading on these platforms, I see immense value in them for myself, for businesses, and for society as a whole.
Prediction markets offer something unique: better information. As a trader, I know how hard it can be to cut through noise and find reliable signals about future events. These markets aggregate insights from countless participants, often producing forecasts that beat polls or expert opinions. This isn't just useful for people like me who trade. It's valuable for anyone making decisions, whether that's a business owner planning for policy changes or a citizen trying to understand public trends. I believe this ties directly to your questions on public interest, specifically Question 8, about the role of price discovery. Prediction markets can be a powerful tool for revealing truths that aren't clear anywhere else.
I also see real, practical value in how these markets help individuals and businesses hedge risks. For example, a small business owner in Arizona might use a prediction market to hedge against uncertainty around federal regulations or election outcomes that could impact taxes or labor costs. I've considered using them myself to offset risks tied to economic data releases that affect my investments. This isn't gambling. It's a legitimate way to manage exposure, much like trading futures or options. I'd urge you to consider this utility when addressing Question 10 on risk management benefits.
Of course, I get the concerns about manipulation or insider trading. Those are real risks. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle fraud and abuse in other markets. Apply those same rules here. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets won't stop bad actors; itll just push activity to unregulated platforms where there's no oversight. Let's keep these markets in the open, under your watch, where they can be monitored.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't shut them down or box them in with overly broad restrictions. Focus on targeted rules that address specific risks while preserving the benefits of better information and risk management for people like me and countless others. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jason Jurado
