Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is DeAndre Candelario, and Im just an everyday citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive used prediction markets a few times, and I believe theyre a valuable tool when regulated properly. Im asking you to support fair rules that allow these markets to operate without overly restrictive bans.
Ive always been interested in elections and big public events, and prediction markets give me a way to see whats really likely to happen. Theyre often more accurate than the talking heads on TV or even the polls we see splashed everywhere. For someone like me, whos not an insider or expert, these markets provide information I cant get anywhere else. Ive placed small trades on platforms like Kalshi to test my own guesses about election outcomes, and its made me pay closer attention to whats going on in the world. Its not gambling to me; its about researching and making informed choices, just like when I decide where to put my savings.
What worries me is the idea of pushing these markets underground. Ive seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and they dont have the safeguards that a CFTC-registered market like Kalshi offers. If you over-restrict or ban prediction markets here in the US, people like me will still look for ways to participate, but well end up in less safe places with no oversight. Regulated markets are transparent, and theyre accountable to rules that protect users. Id rather trade on a platform I know the CFTC is watching than take my chances with some sketchy site overseas.
I also want to address a concern I know comes up, like insider trading or manipulation. I get why thats a worry, but those things are already illegal, right? The CFTC already has the power to go after bad actors in any market. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few cheaters feels like punishing everyone else whos using them honestly. Lets keep the focus on enforcing the laws weve got instead of banning something useful.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance. They let regular people participate and gain insight while having oversight to keep things fair. On Question 29 about insider information, I believe the benefits of accurate price discovery outweigh the risks, especially since laws already ban misuse of nonpublic info.
I hope youll consider my perspective as a regular New Yorker who sees value in these markets. Please support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets thrive under clear, fair rules instead of banning or over-restricting them.
Sincerely,
DeAndre Candelario
