Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Billy Chicas, and I'm just an everyday citizen from California. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and while I have serious issues with how some of these markets operate, I still believe prediction markets have a real value and shouldn't be treated as gambling.
I got into trading on prediction markets because I thought I could make some extra money by researching and predicting real-world events. It's not like playing slots or betting on a game of chance. It takes work, reading up on news, and making judgment calls, just like investing in stocks or other markets. These event contracts aren't gambling in my view. They serve a legitimate purpose, like helping people hedge against things that affect their lives, whether it's an election outcome or a policy change. I think the CFTC needs to recognize that and not lump them in with gaming, as discussed in some of your questions around listed activities, like numbers 15 and 22.
That said, Ive had some awful experiences with Kalshi that make me question how these platforms are run. I've lost money on bets that shouldn't even have been allowed. For example, just today I placed a bet that the weather would hit 85 degrees, but it was already 87. Kalshi took my money without warning me the outcome was impossible. They didn't block the trade or notify me, but they'll block me from pulling out my funds when I need to. I've been led to believe I could win big, like $500 or more, only to end up with nothing in my account. Honestly, it messes with my head, and I know I have my own issues, but I feel like Kalshi is taking advantage of people like me. It's frustrating and feels unfair.
Still, I don't think the answer is to ban prediction markets or over-restrict them. Bad actors or poorly run platforms like Kalshi shouldn't ruin it for everyone. The CFTC already has tools to stop manipulation and protect consumers, as mentioned in your questions around core principles, like numbers 1 and 2. Use those tools to hold platforms accountable instead of shutting down the whole idea. Make sure these markets are fair and transparent, especially for regular folks like me who aren't big investors.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't classify event contracts as gaming, and don't ban broad categories of contracts. Focus on fixing the real problems with targeted rules so people can keep using these markets for legitimate reasons. I appreciate the chance to share my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Billy Chicas
