Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jacob Newton, and I'm a trader and investor from Minnesota. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, often with my friends and girlfriend, and Im writing to support well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I love using platforms like Kalshi to engage with real-world events, and I think these markets provide unique value that shouldnt be banned or over-restricted.
Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer better forecasts than polls or pundits. Whether its an election outcome or a major public event, the prices on Kalshi often cut through the noise and give me a clearer picture of whats likely to happen. This isnt just helpful for me as a trader; its valuable information for everyone, from regular folks to policymakers. Beyond that, these markets let me hedge personal financial risks. For example, Ive used them to offset uncertainties around economic policies that could impact my investments or costs. This isnt gambling. Its a legitimate tool that takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities.
Im also worried about the idea of banning or heavily restricting these markets. If the CFTC goes too far, itll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are way less safe for consumers like me. Kalshi, as a regulated market, gives me confidence with its transparency and oversight. Why drive people to sketchy alternatives? Plus, the US should be leading in financial innovation, not letting other countries take over this space. I want to keep participating in legal, regulated markets without fear of losing access.
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets balance innovation with consumer protection when regulated properly. They improve price discovery and help with risk management. On Topic Area E (Questions 29-32), I think informed trading actually makes prices more accurate and benefits everyone in the market. Insider trading and manipulation are already illegal, and the CFTC has strong tools to tackle bad actors. Dont punish everyday traders like me by shutting down entire markets. Focus on targeting the people who break the rules. And on Topic Area C (Questions 15-22), event contracts shouldnt be classified as gaming. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging and information aggregation.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without broad bans. Keep prediction markets accessible to regular people while using your existing powers to stop manipulation or insider trading. Lets not hurt everyday traders by overreacting to a few bad apples.
Thank you for considering my views.
Sincerely,
Jacob Newton
