Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Abram Cesena, and I'm a college student from California writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not a lawyer or a policy expert, just a regular person who's been using prediction markets like Kalshi to make a bit of extra cash while I'm in school. I wanted to share my thoughts because I believe these markets are valuable, and I think the CFTC should regulate them in a way that keeps them accessible to people like me.
I've been trading on Kalshi for a while now, mostly on short-term markets like the 15-minute Bitcoin price predictions. It's been a good way to earn a little money on the side, but I recently had a frustrating experience. I placed an accurate trade, predicted the outcome correctly, and still didn't get my initial payout. I don't know if it was a glitch or something else, but I couldn't get a clear explanation. This kind of thing makes me worry about how these platforms operate, and I think it shows why we need strong, clear regulation from the CFTC to make sure traders like me are protected and issues are resolved fairly.
I strongly support the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. As a student, having access to these platforms feels fair. It's not just for big investors; regular people can get involved, learn about markets, and make informed decisions. I don't see this as gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like any other kind of investing. Plus, the information these markets provide, like price predictions, is useful to everyone, not just traders.
One thing I'm really concerned about is the idea of banning or over-restricting these markets. If that happens, people will just turn to unregulated offshore platforms, which are way riskier. I've looked at some of those sites, and they don't have the oversight or protections that a CFTC-regulated market like Kalshi offers. Regulation keeps us safe, and I'd rather see the CFTC focus on making sure platforms operate transparently and fairly, rather than shutting them down. Specifically, on Question 7 from your ANPR about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the answer is to keep these markets open but with strong rules to protect users like me from payout issues or other problems.
I also want to touch on Question 23 about when public interest determinations should happen. I think the CFTC should look at these markets case by case, not just ban whole categories. My experience shows there are real issues to fix, but those can be addressed without punishing everyone who uses these platforms.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Keep them accessible to regular people, and make sure platforms are held accountable for fair operation. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Abram Cesena
