Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Graves, and I'm a small business owner from Montana. I run a local hardware store, and Ive been trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a couple of years now. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to voice my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe theyre a valuable tool for people like me, and I hope the CFTC will support their growth with fair, proportionate rules instead of heavy-handed restrictions.
As a business owner, I deal with a lot of uncertainty, from economic policies to election outcomes that can impact my taxes and supply costs. Prediction markets give me a way to hedge some of those risks. For instance, Ive used Kalshi to trade on election outcomes that could affect small business regulations. Its not gambling; its a practical way to protect my livelihood. These markets also provide forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or TV pundits. Ive seen firsthand how the prices on Kalshi cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of what might happen with elections or public events. That kind of information helps me plan better for my store.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi are safe and transparent, unlike unregulated offshore sites. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts prediction markets, people like me will get pushed to those riskier venues. Thats the opposite of protecting consumers. Plus, I think the US should be leading the charge in financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead while we hold back a tool thats useful for so many.
Regarding some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets balance innovation with consumer protection when theyre regulated properly. Theyre not gaming; they serve real economic purposes like hedging and price discovery. On Topic Area E about inside information (Questions 29-32), Id argue that informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, benefiting everyone. And lets not forget, the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading. Use those instead of banning entire markets.
Im not blind to the risks. Yes, some bad actors might try to manipulate prices or trade on insider info. But shutting down prediction markets to stop a few cheaters is like closing a highway because some people speed. Punish the wrongdoers, not the rest of us.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them legal, keep them safe, and let regular folks like me continue to use them to manage risks and stay informed. Dont let over-regulation push this valuable tool offshore or out of reach.
Sincerely,
John Graves
