Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Samuel Swanson, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive while addressing real risks with targeted solutions.
I got into prediction markets because I run a small side business here in Texas, and I wanted a way to hedge against uncertainties like election outcomes or economic policy shifts that could hit my bottom line. For example, last year I used Kalshi to offset risks tied to potential tax changes after a major election. That wasn't gambling; it was a practical way to protect myself. Beyond my own needs, I see how these markets produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. I've watched their predictions on everything from inflation numbers to political races beat out traditional sources time and again. That kind of information isn't just helpful to traders like me; it's valuable to the public and even policymakers who need clear data to make decisions.
I'm also a big believer in freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people won't just stop trading; they'll go to less transparent, riskier places. The US should be leading in financial innovation, not pushing it overseas. I trust that the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading, as they do with other derivatives. Banning entire categories of contracts to stop a few bad actors feels like using a sledgehammer when a scalpel would do. Plus, informed trading actually sharpens price discovery, which benefits everyone, not just those in the market.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to weigh in on a few. On Questions 7 and 8 under Public Interest, I think prediction markets balance innovation and consumer protection by giving regular folks like me access to unique tools for risk management while operating under CFTC rules. On Question 29 about inside information, I believe informed traders improve accuracy, and existing laws already cover misuse of nonpublic data. And on Question 23 about procedural timing, I'd urge the CFTC to avoid blanket prohibitions early on and instead evaluate contracts case by case.
I hope you'll support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets grow while tackling specific risks with focused rules. Don't ban or overly restrict these valuable tools. Thanks for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Samuel Swanson
