Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Johnathom Marker, and I'm writing from Indiana to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not an expert or a long-time trader, just a regular citizen who's recently learned about prediction markets and believes they have real value for people like me and for society as a whole. I want to urge the CFTC to support fair and balanced regulation of these markets rather than imposing heavy restrictions or bans.
Ive only just started exploring prediction markets, but Im struck by how they seem to cut through the noise. From what Ive seen, their forecasts on elections and public events are often more accurate than polls or TV pundits. Thats information I cant get anywhere else, and I think its a public good that helps everyone make better decisions, whether they trade or not. Beyond that, I believe these markets arent gambling at all. Theyre based on research and real-world judgment, much like investing in stocks. Calling them "gaming" feels like a misunderstanding of their purpose, especially since they help individuals and businesses hedge against real risks, like policy changes or economic shifts that could impact a small business or personal finances.
I also worry that over-regulating or banning these markets would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than something like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight. If the goal is protecting people, then regulated markets are the answer, not restrictions that send folks to sketchy websites. And honestly, I think the US should be leading the way on financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead while we drag our feet.
I noticed some of the questions in the ANPR, like those in the Public Interest section (Questions 7-14), ask about balancing innovation with consumer protection. My view is simple: dont throw out the baby with the bathwater. Prediction markets offer unique benefits, and the CFTC already has tools to tackle issues like manipulation or insider trading. Focus on targeted rules, not broad bans. I also saw questions about whether event contracts serve economic purposes (Questions 15-22). Id say they absolutely do, especially for hedging real-world risks, and they shouldnt be lumped in with gambling.
Im just a Hoosier who values the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like these. I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow prediction markets to thrive while addressing specific risks with proportionate measures. Please dont over-restrict or ban them outright. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Johnathom Marker
