Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Thomas Long, and I'm just an everyday citizen from South Carolina writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe these markets provide real value, both to me personally and to society as a whole. I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets rather than imposing bans or overly restrictive rules.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about elections and public events. Honestly, I've found their forecasts to be way more accurate than polls or pundits on TV. That kind of insight isn't just useful for traders like me, it helps everyone, from journalists to regular folks trying to make sense of the world. Its frustrating to see these markets sometimes labeled as "gaming." Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. These event contracts aren't gambling, they serve a real economic purpose, whether its price discovery or helping people hedge risks tied to public outcomes.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are so much safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If you ban or over-restrict these markets, you're just pushing people like me to riskier venues with no consumer protections. Id rather see the US lead in financial innovation, not hand that advantage to other countries. Regulated markets keep activity transparent and accountable, which benefits everyone.
On some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few points. Regarding Public Interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets improve price discovery and democratize access to information. Banning them would stifle innovation and hurt public decision-making. On Inside Information (Questions 29-32), I think informed trading actually helps make prices more accurate, benefiting all participants. Plus, the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives, so those can be adapted here without broad prohibitions. And for Listed Activities (Questions 15-22), I urge you not to classify event contracts as gaming. Theyre legitimate tools for forecasting and risk management.
Im not blind to the risks. Manipulation or bad actors are real concerns, but the answer isnt to shut down entire markets. Its to use the authority you already have and focus on targeted, fair rules. Academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently. Lets keep that data transparent and accessible.
Please regulate prediction markets in a balanced way. Support their growth under clear, reasonable guidelines instead of restrictive bans that hurt regular people like me. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Thomas Long
