Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kye Lowmon, and I'm a trader and investor based in Georgia. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe these markets provide unique value that shouldn't be stifled by overly restrictive rules.
As someone who spends a lot of time analyzing markets, I can say firsthand that prediction markets offer insights you just can't get from polls or pundits. I've used them to gauge outcomes on everything from elections to economic data releases, and the prices often reflect a sharper, more accurate picture than traditional sources. This isn't just useful for me as a trader; it's valuable for anyone who needs to understand what's really happening, whether that's a business owner planning for policy changes or a regular citizen trying to make sense of the news.
What draws me to these markets is how they aggregate information through informed trading. I put in hours of research before placing a trade, reading reports, digging into data, and weighing probabilities. It's not a game of chance; it's a skill, much like trading stocks or commodities. Academic research backs this up. Studies by economists like Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz show that prediction markets are often more accurate than other forecasting tools because they incentivize people to bring their best information to the table. When informed traders participate, the prices get sharper, and that benefits everyone, not just those of us in the market. I'd hate to see that dynamic crushed by rules that assume trading on knowledge is somehow a problem.
Speaking to some of your specific questions, like those in Topic E about inside information (Questions 29-32), I believe informed trading is a strength, not a flaw. Yes, theres a risk of insider abuse, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle that. Insider trading and market manipulation are illegal across all regulated markets, and those laws should be enforced here too, without banning or over-restricting prediction markets. Shutting down these platforms to stop a few bad actors would punish honest traders like me and deprive society of the transparent data these markets produce. I also care deeply about data transparency, and I think regulated markets like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far better than pushing activity to unregulated offshore sites where there's no accountability.
I'm asking you to craft rules that support innovation while addressing specific risks with targeted measures. Prediction markets are a powerful tool for price discovery and public understanding. Please don't let overbroad restrictions kill their potential. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Kye Lowmon
