Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Benjamin Thorp, and I'm just a regular citizen from Ohio writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for people like me. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets instead of banning or over-restricting them.
As someone who runs a small household budget, Ive found prediction markets helpful for thinking through financial risks that affect my family. For example, Ive looked at contracts tied to economic indicators like inflation numbers because they impact my grocery and utility bills. Being able to participate in these markets gives me a small way to hedge against uncertainties that hit my wallet. It's not gambling, it's a tool. I put in time to research and understand what I'm trading on, just like I would with any investment. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong to me because they serve a real economic purpose, whether it's hedging or just getting better information about the world.
I also think that letting regular folks like me participate in these markets is important. If you over-restrict or ban them, you're not stopping the activity, you're just pushing it offshore to unregulated platforms where there's no oversight. I've seen sites like Kalshi, which are regulated by the CFTC, and they feel much safer and more transparent. Why drive people to sketchy foreign websites instead of keeping things under your control here in the US? Plus, informed trading by people who know what they're doing actually makes the prices more accurate, which helps everyone, not just traders.
I'm also worried that if we clamp down too hard, the US will lose its edge in financial innovation. We should be leading the way on new tools like prediction markets, not handing that advantage to other countries. In response to some of your specific questions, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe the balance should tip toward innovation with smart rules, not outright restrictions. And on Topic E about inside information (Questions 29-32), I think the benefits of informed trading for price discovery outweigh the risks, especially since insider trading is already illegal and can be enforced.
Im not blind to the concerns about manipulation or bad actors, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle those problems. Don't punish everyone by shutting down a useful market. I respectfully ask that you craft proportionate regulations that allow prediction markets to operate safely under your oversight, without broad bans or overly tight restrictions.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Benjamin Thorp
