Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Dylan Arnett, and I'm a student from New Jersey with a strong interest in economics and financial markets. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I want to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets and urge the CFTC to adopt a balanced approach that allows everyday people like me to participate in these innovative tools.
I first got into prediction markets because I was fascinated by how they aggregate information. Honestly, I trust the forecasts on Kalshi way more than I trust polls or pundits on TV. I've seen time and again how the prices on these platforms reflect real probabilities better than so-called experts. That's valuable not just for traders but for anyone trying to understand what's likely to happen, whether it's an election or an economic indicator. As a student, I also see the academic potential here. The data from prediction markets could be a goldmine for research, helping us understand decision-making and public sentiment in ways traditional surveys can't match.
I'm also a big believer in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Kalshi, as a CFTC-registered platform, feels so much safer and more transparent than the unregulated offshore sites out there. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, I worry it'll just push people like me to those shadier platforms where there's no oversight. That's not protecting anyone; it's just creating bigger risks. I think the CFTC already has solid tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading. Use those existing powers instead of shutting down something useful.
On a related note, I want to address the idea that event contracts are gambling. I don't see it that way at all. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm doing research, weighing probabilities, and making informed decisions about real-world events. That's no different from trading stocks or commodities. Plus, informed trading actually helps everyone by making the prices more accurate, which ties into Question 29 from your ANPR about whether informed traders aid price discovery. I believe they do, and that benefits the whole market.
I also want to touch on Questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I get that there are risks, but banning or overly restricting prediction markets isn't the answer. Proportionate regulation that focuses on transparency and enforcement of existing laws would protect users like me while still letting this space grow.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support regulated prediction markets with fair rules that don't exclude regular people or stifle innovation. Let's keep platforms like Kalshi accessible and safe, not push activity to riskier corners of the internet. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Dylan Arnett
