Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Neal Johnson, and I'm a trader and investor based in Pennsylvania. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I'm writing to support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I want to share my perspective on why the CFTC should regulate them proportionately rather than restrict or ban them.
As a trader, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information you cant get anywhere else. Whether its an election outcome or a major public event, the prices on these platforms have consistently been more accurate than polls or pundit opinions. Ive used these forecasts to inform my own decisions, not just for trading but for understanding the world better. This isnt gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Plus, allowing regular folks like me to participate democratizes access to this kind of insight. If only big institutions can play, they hoard all the valuable information.
Im also concerned about U.S. competitiveness. Prediction markets are a form of financial innovation, and the United States should be leading the way, not falling behind. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms. Id much rather trade on a CFTC-registered market like Kalshi, where there are rules and oversight, than be forced to use less safe options abroad. Addressing your questions 7 and 8 in the ANPR, I believe fostering innovation while protecting consumers is possible through targeted regulation, not outright bans.
On the issue of manipulation or insider trading, raised in questions 29 through 32, I think the CFTC already has the tools to handle bad actors. Market manipulation is illegal, and so is trading on nonpublic information for federal employees or others. Enforcing existing laws makes more sense than shutting down entire markets because of a few potential cheaters. Banning prediction markets to stop insider trading would be like closing the stock market for the same reason. It punishes the wrong people.
I care deeply about my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. These platforms give me a way to engage with public events financially and intellectually. I urge the CFTC to create a framework that allows prediction markets to thrive under fair oversight. Please dont over-restrict or ban them. Focus on proportionate rules that address specific risks without stifling innovation or pushing traders like me offshore.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Neal Johnson
