Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Destiny Napper, and I'm a trader and investor based in Florida. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I wanted to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope my perspective as someone who uses these platforms can help shape a balanced approach.
I rely on prediction markets for insights that I just can't get from polls or pundits. Time and again, these markets have proven more accurate in forecasting events, whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator. That information isn't just helpful for me as a trader; it's valuable for everyone, from businesses to regular folks trying to make sense of the world. I also use these markets to hedge real risks. For instance, I've traded contracts tied to economic data releases that could impact my investments or personal finances. This isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, much like trading stocks or futures. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels like a misstep to me, and I urge you to recognize their legitimate economic purposes, as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR.
I'm also a big believer in keeping these markets regulated and onshore. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If we ban or over-restrict prediction markets, people like me won't stop trading; we'll just get pushed to less secure venues. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. The U.S. has a chance to lead in financial innovation here, and I don't want to see us cede that ground to other countries. These points tie directly to Questions 7-14 on balancing innovation and consumer protection.
Another thing I value is how informed trading in these markets improves price discovery. Academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently. When knowledgeable traders participate, the data becomes more transparent and useful for all of us. I understand the concerns about insider trading raised in Questions 29-32, but I believe the answer lies in enforcing existing laws, not banning entire markets. Punishing everyone for the actions of a few bad actors doesn't make sense.
Im not blind to the risks. Manipulation and fraud are real concerns, but the CFTC already has tools to address them. Let's focus on targeted rules, not broad restrictions. I hope you'll support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while keeping participants safe. Please don't let overregulation or outright bans push this valuable tool out of reach for Americans like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Destiny Napper
