Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Amarri Allen, and I'm a trader and investor based in Florida. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets. I want to share why these markets matter to me and why I believe the CFTC should encourage their growth with fair rules, not heavy-handed restrictions.
As someone who trades regularly, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't just a hobby for me; they provide unique information I can't get anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how the prices on these platforms often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or news pundits. That kind of insight helps me make better decisions, not just in trading but in understanding the world around me. It's not gambling, it's informed decision-making based on research and judgment, much like trading stocks or futures. I believe this benefits everyone, not just traders, by improving public information and price discovery.
One thing I want to highlight is how informed trading makes these markets stronger. When people with real knowledge or insight participate, the prices reflect a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. This isn't a bug, it's a feature. Shutting down or over-restricting these markets out of fear of insider trading would be a mistake. The CFTC already has tools to tackle manipulation and illegal behavior. Use those instead of punishing all of us who trade fairly. I think this ties directly to Questions 29 and 31 in your ANPR, about whether informed traders aid price discovery. From my experience, they absolutely do, and that helps everyone, not just the person placing the trade.
I also want to mention a practical issue I've run into on Kalshi. Payouts can be frustratingly slow, especially for NBA game contracts that end after 9pm. Sometimes it takes hours to get my money, which is a hassle. I'm not sure if this is something the CFTC can address, but if regulation can encourage faster settlement processes, that would make these markets even more user-friendly. Maybe this relates to Question 5 on operational integrity for blockchain or other tech-based platforms. Just a thought from a regular user.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. These markets give regular people like me a chance to participate, access better information, and make smarter choices. Let's keep that opportunity alive with fair rules that address real risks without shutting down innovation.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Amarri Allen
