Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Colin Haynie, and I'm a student from New Jersey with a strong interest in academic research and data transparency. I'm writing to express my support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I've seen firsthand how these markets provide unique insights and serve important economic purposes.
Prediction markets aren't just a hobby for me; they're a tool for understanding the world. The prices on these platforms often reflect probabilities and information that I can't find in polls or news articles. As a student, I value this kind of data transparency because it helps me analyze trends and events with more clarity, whether I'm researching economic policy or political outcomes. I believe this aggregated information benefits not just traders like me, but society at large, including policymakers and the media who can use these forecasts to make better decisions.
I want to address a key concern I've seen raised: the idea that event contracts are akin to gaming. I strongly disagree. Trading on prediction markets requires research, critical thinking, and judgment about real-world events, much like investing in stocks or commodities. These markets serve legitimate economic purposes, such as price discovery and hedging against uncertainty. For example, I've used Kalshi to hedge personal financial risks tied to economic indicators like inflation data. Labeling this as gaming would undermine its real value. I urge the CFTC to consider this distinction when addressing questions 15-22 on listed activities and how to define legitimate markets.
I'm also worried about the risk of over-restriction or outright bans. If prediction markets are heavily limited, activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms where there are no consumer protections or oversight. I've traded on Kalshi, a CFTC-registered platform, and I feel much safer knowing there are rules in place to prevent manipulation and ensure fairness. Pushing traders like me to less safe venues would be a step backward. This ties directly to questions 7-14 on public interest, where the balance between innovation and consumer protection is so critical. Regulated markets are the answer, not prohibition.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with targeted rules that address specific risks like manipulation or insider trading, without stifling innovation or access. These markets are valuable for information aggregation and economic utility, and I believe the US should lead in this space rather than cede ground to unregulated alternatives. Thank you for considering my perspective as a student and active trader.
Sincerely,
Colin Haynie
