Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Devin Campbell, and I'm a trader and investor based in Arkansas. I've spent years analyzing markets and making informed decisions about where to put my money, and I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm relatively new to these markets, but I see their value and potential, both for me personally and for society as a whole.
As someone who trades and invests, I'm always looking for reliable information to guide my decisions. Prediction markets stand out because they often produce forecasts that are more accurate than polls or pundits. I've seen firsthand how traditional sources can be biased or just plain wrong, especially when it comes to elections or big economic events. Prediction markets cut through that noise by aggregating what people actually think, based on where they're willing to put their money. This isn't just helpful for traders like me; it's useful for everyone, from business owners to regular folks trying to understand what's coming next.
I also strongly believe that event contracts shouldn't be classified as gaming. This isn't about rolling dice or playing slots. When I trade or consider a contract on a prediction market, I'm using research, judgment, and real-world knowledge, just like I do with stocks or commodities. These contracts serve legitimate economic purposes, whether it's hedging against uncertainty or gaining insight into future events. For example, I could see myself using a contract to hedge against a policy change that might affect my investments. That's not gambling; it's risk management, plain and simple.
I'm aware of the concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are issues to watch. But the CFTC already has tools to address fraud and manipulation in other markets, and those can be applied here. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets because of a few bad actors would punish the rest of us who are using them responsibly. It'd be like shutting down stock exchanges because of insider trading scandals. Let's focus on enforcement, not prohibition.
In particular, I'd like to address Questions 15 and 16 from the ANPR about defining gaming versus legitimate markets. Event contracts aren't games of chance; they're tools for price discovery and hedging, and they should be regulated as such, not lumped in with gambling. I urge the CFTC to recognize their economic value and avoid broad categorical bans.
Prediction markets are a powerful innovation, and with the right oversight, they can thrive while protecting consumers. I respectfully ask that you support proportionate regulation that allows these markets to operate and grow, rather than imposing heavy restrictions or outright prohibitions. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Devin Campbell
