Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jake Kenz, and I'm just a regular guy from North Dakota writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I strongly support having them regulated in a fair and balanced way, not banned or overly restricted.
I believe prediction markets are valuable for a lot of reasons. For one, they often give better forecasts than polls or TV pundits. I've seen this myself during election seasons when the odds on these platforms were closer to the actual results than what the news was saying. That kind of insight isn't just helpful for traders like me; it's useful for everyone trying to understand what's really going on. Also, I don't see this as gambling. When I trade on an event contract, I'm researching and making judgments about real-world events, much like I would with stocks or other investments. It's a skill, not a game of chance.
Another thing that matters to me is the freedom to take part in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are so much safer than unregulated offshore sites. If we clamp down too hard, people will just go to those riskier places, and that's worse for everyone. Plus, the US should be leading the way on financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead while we hold ourselves back with rules that are too tight.
I also think informed trading makes these markets better. When people who know a lot about a topic trade, the prices get more accurate, and that benefits all of us, not just the traders. I'm looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 11 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 29 on whether informed traders help price discovery. My take is that we need rules that encourage innovation and let knowledgeable people participate while still having strong protections against manipulation, which the CFTC already has tools to address.
I've got a personal stake in this too. Living in North Dakota, I don't always have access to the same information or networks as folks in bigger cities. Prediction markets level the playing field a bit by letting regular people like me have a say and learn from the collective wisdom of the crowd. Shutting that down would feel like a step backward.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Focus on specific risks with targeted rules, but don't ban or over-restrict them. Let's keep these markets safe, accessible, and innovative right here in the US.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jake Kenz
