Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jason Eisner, and I'm just a regular citizen from Maryland writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe well-regulated prediction markets are valuable for society. Im asking you to support proportionate regulation rather than imposing heavy restrictions or bans on these markets.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about events that affect my life, like elections or economic policy changes. The prices on these platforms often give a clearer picture than polls or news pundits. Its not just about making a few bucks, though thats nice. Its about having access to aggregated insights that I cant get anywhere else. Ive seen firsthand how the collective input of many traders, including those with informed perspectives, sharpens the accuracy of these markets. That benefits everyone, not just us traders, by providing reliable signals for decision-making, whether its for personal finances or public policy.
I know there are worries about insider trading or manipulation, and I get that. Those are real concerns. But banning or overly restricting prediction markets isnt the answer. The CFTC already has rules and tools to tackle bad actors in other markets, and those can work here too. Shutting down these platforms because a few might cheat is like closing a highway because some people speed. Plus, informed trading often improves price discovery, not harms it. When people with real knowledge trade, the market prices get closer to the truth. Thats a public good. I think your existing authority can handle the risks without punishing the rest of us who use these markets responsibly.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I believe regulation should encourage innovation by allowing platforms like Kalshi to operate under clear, fair rules. And on Question 29, regarding informed traders and price discovery, I strongly feel that their participation makes the market more accurate, as long as its not based on illegal insider information. The focus should be on enforcing current laws, not creating barriers that push activity to unregulated offshore sites.
Prediction markets arent gambling to me. They take research and judgment, just like any investment. I hope the CFTC will regulate them in a way that preserves access for everyday people like me while addressing legitimate risks with targeted solutions. Please dont let overregulation stifle a tool thats so useful for better information and decision-making.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jason Eisner
