Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Chris Sealy, and I'm a student from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've started using platforms like Kalshi to try and build a small tuition fund. It's not a lot yet, just about 20 bucks a week, but every bit helps when you're paying for school. I believe these markets have real value, both for me personally and for society, and I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation rather than overly restrictive rules or bans.
As a student, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. Prediction markets aren't just a way to make a little extra money; they also give regular people like me a chance to engage with real-world events and make informed decisions. I've noticed that the forecasts on these platforms often seem more accurate than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. That kind of information is helpful to everyone, not just traders. It can shape better public decision-making, and I think that's worth protecting. I'd point to Questions 7 and 8 in your ANPR, where you ask about balancing innovation with public interest. I believe supporting prediction markets serves the public by providing clearer, more reliable data on future events.
I also worry about what happens if these markets get banned or over-regulated. From what I've read, banning them won't stop people from trading; it'll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no consumer protection. I'd much rather see the CFTC regulate these markets properly, like they do with Kalshi, to keep things safe and transparent. This ties into Question 11 on public interest and consumer protection. Regulation is the way to go, not prohibition.
Another concern of mine is how event contracts are viewed. I don't think they should be called gaming. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm researching and thinking hard about real-world outcomes, just like someone investing in stocks. These contracts serve a real purpose, like price discovery, and shouldn't be lumped in with gambling. I hope you'll consider this under Questions 15 and 16 about defining gaming versus legitimate market activity.
Finally, I believe the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-restrict prediction markets, other countries will step in and take the lead. Informed trading, even if some call it insider knowledge, actually helps make prices more accurate, which benefits everyone. I'd ask you to look at Questions 29 and 30 on inside information and price discovery when thinking about this. Let's not cut off a valuable tool just because of a few potential bad actors.
I appreciate the chance to comment and hope the CFTC will support fair, balanced regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible for people like me.
Sincerely,
Chris Sealy
