Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Aidan Miller, and I'm just a regular citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer unique benefits to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow them to thrive without over-restricting access.
One reason I'm so invested in this issue is that prediction markets consistently give better information than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand. For instance, during the last election cycle, I was skeptical of the endless talking heads on TV and the wildly varying poll numbers. Instead, I turned to prediction markets on Kalshi to get a clearer picture of what might happen. The prices there cut through the noise and gave me a sense of the real probabilities, which turned out to be much closer to the actual results than most expert guesses. This kind of accuracy isn't just helpful for me; it's valuable for everyone, from regular folks trying to understand the world to policymakers who need reliable data for decisions. I think the CFTC should recognize this public benefit when considering regulations.
I'm also worried about the US falling behind in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban prediction markets, we're handing the lead to other countries that are more open to these platforms. I'd hate to see activity pushed to unregulated offshore sites where there's no oversight at all. Regulated markets like Kalshi are safer and keep the US competitive. This ties into Questions 7 and 8 from your ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think the answer is clear: support innovation with smart, targeted rules, not broad restrictions.
I understand there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation. But those are already illegal under existing laws, and the CFTC has the power to enforce them. Shutting down or overly limiting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone for the actions of a few. It's like closing the stock market because some people trade on inside info. Use the tools you have instead of broad bans.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. They provide unique forecasting value and keep the US at the forefront of financial innovation. Please don't let fear of potential risks lead to rules that stifle this growing field. I'm happy to provide more input if needed.
Sincerely,
Aidan Miller
