Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tresuan Shaw, and I'm a student from Maryland. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me and to society at large. I want to share why I think they should be supported with fair rules, not banned or overly restricted.
I've been trading on Kalshi for a while now, and it's been an eye-opening experience. As a student, I don't have access to fancy insider reports or high-priced analysts, but prediction markets give me a way to see what thousands of other people think about events that matter to me, like elections or economic indicators. The forecasts on these platforms are often more accurate than polls or pundits on TV. Ive seen it myself, comparing market predictions to what actually happens. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders, its useful for everyone who wants to understand the world better.
What I value most is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which makes me feel safer knowing there are rules in place to prevent fraud or manipulation. I've read about unregulated offshore platforms, and they worry me. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts prediction markets here, people like me won't just stop trading. We'll get pushed to those sketchy offshore sites with no protections. Id much rather trade on a regulated US platform where my interests are safeguarded.
I also want to address concerns about insider trading, since I know its something the CFTC is looking at in questions 29 through 32 of the ANPR. I believe informed trading actually helps price discovery. When people with good information trade, it makes the markets predictions more accurate, which benefits everyone. Of course, illegal insider trading should be prosecuted, but the CFTC already has laws and tools to handle that. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad actors feels like overkill to me. It punishes regular traders like myself who are just trying to engage with the world in a meaningful way.
Prediction markets aren't gambling. They take research and judgment, and they help people like me stay informed about real-world events. I urge the CFTC to focus on fair, balanced regulation that keeps these markets accessible to ordinary citizens. Please don't let heavy restrictions or outright bans push this valuable activity into unsafe, unregulated spaces. I support rules that address specific risks while preserving the benefits of prediction markets for all of us.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Tresuan Shaw
