Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ian Markowitz, and I'm just a regular citizen from Massachusetts writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a lawyer or a finance expert, just someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, and I want to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets. Theyve been incredibly useful to me, and I believe they can benefit society as a whole if handled right.
I trade on prediction markets because they help me hedge personal financial risks. For example, Ive used these markets to bet on election outcomes that could impact my taxes or on economic data releases like CPI numbers that affect my budget for rent and groceries. Its not gambling to me; its a practical tool. I put in the time to research and think through what might happen, just like I would with any other investment. The prices on these markets often give me insights I cant find in news articles or polls. Ive noticed theyre often more accurate than so-called experts, and that information helps me make better decisions.
What I really value is how informed trading improves price discovery for everyone, not just traders like me. When people who know something put their money where their mouth is, the market prices reflect that knowledge. That benefits all participants and even people who dont trade, like businesses or policymakers who can use these signals to plan. Im worried that over-restricting these markets would keep that valuable information locked away with just a few big players. Letting everyday folks like me participate makes the system fairer and the predictions sharper.
I know there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, and I get that. But those issues are already illegal, right? The CFTC has the power to go after bad actors, just like in other markets. Shutting down or heavily restricting prediction markets because of a few potential cheaters feels like punishing everyone for the actions of a few. I think the focus should be on enforcing existing rules, not creating broad bans.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address Question 29 under the Inside Information section. I strongly believe that informed traders help price discovery, as Ive seen firsthand how accurate predictions emerge when knowledgeable people trade. The CFTC should encourage that while using current laws to stop actual insider trading, not ban the markets altogether.
I hope youll consider my perspective as a regular trader who finds real value in prediction markets. Please support proportionate regulation that lets these markets operate and grow while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Dont over-restrict or ban them; theyre too useful for people like me and for society at large.
Sincerely,
Ian Markowitz
