Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Wyatt Julian, and I'm a student from Ohio with a strong interest in economics and public policy. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on regulated prediction markets like Kalshi, and I believe these markets provide immense value for accurate forecasting, better public decision-making, and price discovery. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets rather than imposing overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
As a student, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights that polls and pundits often miss. Whether it's an election outcome or a major policy decision, the aggregated wisdom of traders on platforms like Kalshi consistently cuts through noise and bias. This isn't just helpful for traders like me, it's valuable for anyone who wants clearer information about the future, from journalists to policymakers. I also appreciate how these markets let regular people like me hedge real risks. For instance, I've used them to offset uncertainties around economic events that could impact my future job prospects or student loan rates.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and those are valid worries. But the CFTC already has strong tools to address these issues in other derivatives markets, and they can be applied here too. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets won't solve bad behavior, it will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight at all. I'd much rather trade on a regulated US market like Kalshi, where there are rules and protections, than be forced to less safe alternatives. Plus, informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting everyone in the market, not just a few insiders.
I'm also concerned about event contracts being labeled as "gaming." These aren't games of chance, theyre based on research and real-world judgment, much like any other investment. They serve legitimate purposes like hedging and forecasting, and I think the CFTC should recognize that in its approach. Regarding some of your specific questions, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets clearly support innovation and price discovery, and the US should lead in this financial technology rather than cede ground to other countries. On Topic C (Questions 15-22), I urge you not to classify these contracts as gaming but to focus on their economic utility.
As someone in academia, I also value the data transparency these markets provide for research. Theyre a goldmine for studying how information shapes decisions, and heavy restrictions would choke off that potential. So I ask the CFTC to regulate prediction markets in a targeted way, addressing specific risks without broad bans. Lets keep these markets safe, accessible, and innovative right here in the US.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Wyatt Julian
