Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Cameron Pope, and I'm a student from Texas with a strong interest in economics and public policy. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for the past year, and I wanted to share my perspective on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and believe they offer unique value to individuals like me, as well as to society at large.
As a student, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information thats often more reliable than polls or media forecasts. Whether its an election outcome or a major economic indicator, the aggregated wisdom of traders on platforms like Kalshi cuts through noise and bias. This isnt just helpful for traders; its valuable for anyone making decisions based on public events. I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like potential policy changes that could impact my future student loans or job prospects after graduation. This isnt gambling, in my view. It takes research and judgment, much like investing in stocks, and it serves a real economic purpose.
Im particularly concerned about the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets, as discussed in some of the questions in the ANPR, like those under Topic C (Questions 15-22) about defining gaming versus legitimate markets. Classifying event contracts as gaming ignores their role in price discovery and hedging. Plus, pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms by over-regulating here at home would be a big mistake. I feel much safer trading on a CFTC-regulated platform like Kalshi, where there are clear rules and oversight, compared to the risks of offshore alternatives.
On Topic E (Questions 29-32) regarding inside information, I believe informed trading actually improves price accuracy and benefits everyone. The CFTC already has strong tools to combat manipulation and insider trading in other markets, and those can be applied here without broad bans. And as for innovation, covered in Topic B (Questions 7-14), I think the U.S. should be leading the way in financial technology, not ceding ground to other countries. Proportionate regulation that targets specific risks makes more sense than sweeping restrictions.
Prediction markets arent just a niche interest for me; theyre a tool for better decision-making and a way to democratize access to valuable information. I urge the CFTC to support their growth with clear, balanced rules that protect consumers without stifling innovation or pushing activity offshore.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Cameron Pope
