Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Danny Martinez, and I'm just a regular guy from California whos been following the discussion around prediction markets. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I wanted to share why I think these markets are important and deserve fair, balanced regulation instead of heavy restrictions or bans.
Im not a financial expert or anything, but Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets can be useful for everyday people like me. Theyre not just some niche hobby. The prices on these platforms give information you cant find anywhere else, often more accurate than news pundits or polls. Ive used them to get a sense of things like election outcomes or economic data releases that affect my life, like how a Federal Reserve decision might impact interest rates on a loan Im considering. Its not gambling to me. Its about doing research, reading up on events, and making informed decisions, kind of like how people approach stock trading.
What really matters to me is that prediction markets let individuals and small businesses hedge real risks. For example, I run a small side business selling handmade goods online, and changes in trade policies or tariffs can hit my costs hard. Being able to trade on outcomes related to policy decisions helps me plan better and protect my bottom line. I know friends whove used these markets to hedge against things like weather events affecting travel plans or inflation data impacting their budgets. This isnt play money. Its practical.
I also worry about the US falling behind in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban prediction markets, were just pushing this activity to offshore platforms with no oversight. Id rather see the CFTC create clear rules that keep these markets safe and fair here at home. That way, the US stays a leader in new financial tools instead of handing that advantage to other countries. I think this ties into your questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I believe we can have both with smart, targeted rules.
I get that there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, and those are real issues. But those are already illegal under existing laws, right? The CFTC has tools to go after bad actors without shutting down entire markets. Banning prediction markets to stop a few cheaters feels like punishing everyone for the actions of a few. Lets focus on enforcement instead, like youre asking about in questions 29 and 30 on inside information.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation for prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Make rules that address specific risks while letting regular folks like me benefit from the information and hedging opportunities these markets provide. Thanks for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Danny Martinez
