Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joshua Okihara, and Im just an everyday citizen from Hawaii writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the CFTC crafting well-balanced regulations for prediction markets rather than over-restricting or banning them.
I rely on prediction markets for information that I cant get anywhere else. Whether its an election outcome or a major public event, the forecasts on these platforms consistently beat polls and pundits. Thats not just helpful for me as a trader; its valuable for anyone paying attention to whats happening in the world. Beyond forecasting, I use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. Living in Hawaii, where costs are high and economic changes hit hard, being able to offset potential losses from policy shifts or events feels like a lifeline sometimes. This isnt gambling to me. It takes research and real-world judgment, just like any other investment.
Im also worried about what happens if these markets get over-regulated or shut down. Right now, platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which makes me feel safe as a consumer. If you ban or heavily restrict them, people like me will just turn to offshore alternatives with no protections. Id much rather trade in a regulated U.S. market than take my chances somewhere else. Plus, the U.S. should be leading the way on financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries.
On specific points in your ANPR, I want to address Question 8 under Public Interest about price discovery. I believe informed trading makes prediction markets more accurate, and that benefits everyone, not just participants. The prices reflect real insights, and shutting that down would mean less information for public decision-making. Also, regarding Question 15 under Listed Activities, I dont think event contracts should be classified as gaming. They serve real economic purposes like hedging and forecasting, not just entertainment. And on Question 23 under Procedural Aspects, I urge you to focus on proportionate regulation. Target specific risks like manipulation with clear rules instead of broad bans that punish everyone.
I know there are concerns about insider trading or market abuse, and I get that. But those are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to enforce against bad actors. Banning entire markets to stop a few cheaters feels like overkill. Please dont cut off access for regular folks like me who use these platforms responsibly.
I respectfully ask that the CFTC support prediction markets with fair, targeted regulations that protect consumers while allowing innovation and participation. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Joshua Okihara
