Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jackson Canaday, and I'm a trader and investor based in Arizona. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on regulated prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the CFTC creating a fair, proportionate framework for these markets rather than overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
As someone who spends a lot of time analyzing markets, I see firsthand how prediction markets provide unique information that you just can't get from polls or news pundits. The prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced insights on everything from election outcomes to economic indicators. This isn't gambling; it's a process of research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. I put in the work to understand the events I'm trading on, and my trades, along with those of others, help make the market's predictions sharper. This benefits not just traders like me but anyone who looks at these prices for insight, whether they're journalists, businesses, or everyday folks.
What I value most is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't just for big institutions; they let regular people like me have a voice in forecasting important events. When informed traders participate, it improves price discovery for everyone. Banning or over-restricting these markets would cut off that access and push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which is far riskier. I'm all for rules that prevent manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to address those issues. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the wrong people.
I also want to address some of the specific questions in the ANPR. On Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe informed trading often helps price discovery by incorporating real knowledge into the market. The focus should be on enforcing existing laws against misuse of nonpublic information rather than broad restrictions. And on Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated markets like Kalshi already strike a good balance by providing transparency and oversight while still allowing innovation to thrive.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with rules that tackle specific risks without stifling participation. These markets are a powerful tool for information and economic fairness, and with the right oversight, they can grow safely. Please don't let heavy-handed regulation push this opportunity out of reach for traders like me.
Sincerely,
Jackson Canaday
