Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Wesley Curry, and I'm a student from Illinois writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they have real value for individuals like me, as well as for society at large. I support well-regulated prediction markets and urge the CFTC to craft rules that allow them to operate without overly restrictive bans or barriers.
As a student, I value access to information that helps me understand the world. Prediction markets have consistently produced forecasts that are more accurate than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand when following election outcomes or economic indicators on platforms like Kalshi. The aggregated wisdom of many traders often cuts through noise and bias in a way that traditional sources can't match. This isn't just useful for me; it's a public good that can inform better decision-making for everyone, from policymakers to regular citizens. I think this ties directly to your questions in the Public Interest section, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and protection, and Question 9 on price discovery. These markets are a tool for clarity, not a risk to be stifled.
I also care about the freedom to participate in legal, regulated spaces. I've placed small trades on prediction markets to hedge personal risks, like potential policy changes that could affect my student loans or future job market. This isn't gambling; it's a thoughtful way to manage uncertainty, much like any other investment. Classifying event contracts as "gaming," as discussed in your Listed Activities section (Questions 15-17), ignores their legitimate economic purpose. They're a tool for hedging and insight, not a game of chance.
Another concern I have is safety. Regulated markets under CFTC oversight, like Kalshi, provide transparency and accountability that offshore platforms simply don't. If you ban or over-restrict these markets, people won't stop trading; they'll just move to unregulated, riskier venues outside U.S. jurisdiction. I'd rather see the CFTC focus on strong consumer protections within a regulated framework, as touched on in Questions 7 and 8, than push activity into the shadows.
Finally, as someone in academia, I value the research potential of prediction markets. The data they generate could be a goldmine for studying human behavior and forecasting trends, if made accessible for academic use. I hope the CFTC considers this in its approach to transparency and data-sharing policies.
I understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but those are already illegal under existing laws. The CFTC has tools to address bad actors without punishing everyone else by shutting down these markets. I ask that you support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Let's keep this innovation accessible and safe for Americans.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Wesley Curry
