Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Julian Hernandez, and I'm a regular citizen from New Jersey writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they serve a valuable purpose when properly regulated. I'm asking you to support fair rules that allow everyday people like me to participate without pushing these markets into unsafe, offshore spaces.
I've always been interested in how events like elections or economic shifts affect my life, whether it's my job or just planning for the future. Prediction markets have given me a unique way to engage with these issues. They're not just about betting; they provide information you can't find in news articles or polls. The prices reflect what a lot of people think, and I've found that really helpful for understanding what's likely to happen. I think this kind of price discovery benefits everyone, not just traders. It could even help policymakers or journalists make better calls if they pay attention to these signals.
As someone who isn't a big investor or part of some financial elite, I appreciate that prediction markets let regular folks like me have a voice in these systems. They're a legal, regulated space where I can participate on equal footing. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, you're not protecting people like me; you're cutting us out. Worse, it would push activity to offshore platforms with no oversight. I've read about unregulated sites operating outside the US, and they seem far riskier than anything run under CFTC rules. Keeping prediction markets here, with clear regulations, is the safer choice.
I'm aware of the concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are problems. But the CFTC already has tools to handle bad actors, right? I'd urge you to focus on enforcing those existing laws rather than limiting access for everyone. Specifically, in response to Questions 7 and 8 under the Public Interest section, I believe innovation and consumer protection can go hand in hand if you regulate smartly instead of shutting things down. And for Questions 29 to 31 on inside information, I think informed traders can actually make prices more accurate, as long as illegal insider trading is policed properly.
I'm just one person, but I hope you'll consider how these markets give people like me better information and a fair chance to participate. Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid bans or harsh limits that would drive activity offshore. Thank you for taking the time to read my comment.
Sincerely,
Julian Hernandez
