Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Wilbert Soto, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Massachusetts writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I want to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe theyre valuable not just for me, but for society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow regular people like me to keep participating.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted a way to engage with real-world events that affect my life, like elections or economic decisions. Trading on these platforms isnt a game to me. It takes research and thought, just like any other kind of investing. I read up on news, analyze trends, and make decisions based on what I think is likely to happen. Whats amazing about these markets is that the prices often tell a story you cant get from polls or pundits. Theyve been more accurate time and time again, and that kind of information helps everyone, not just traders.
Im particularly passionate about the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Letting everyday folks like me trade on platforms like Kalshi isnt a flaw, its a strength. When regular people get involved, the market reflects a wider range of perspectives, and that makes the predictions better. If only big institutions could play, all that valuable insight would stay locked up with them. Plus, Ive used these markets to hedge personal risks, like betting on policy changes that could hit my wallet. Thats not gambling, its planning.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that. But those are already illegal under existing laws, and the CFTC has the power to crack down on bad actors. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few cheaters feels like punishing everyone for the actions of a few. Itd be like closing the stock market because of insider trading scandals. Instead, I think the focus should be on enforcing the rules you already have.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address numbers 29 and 30 under the Inside Information section. Informed trading, where people bring their knowledge to the table, actually improves price discovery. It makes the market smarter. Yes, insider trading is a risk, but again, its already against the law. The answer isnt to ban these markets, its to monitor and enforce.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Create rules that let regular people participate while addressing real risks with targeted solutions. These markets are a powerful tool for information and financial planning, and Id hate to see them taken away.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Wilbert Soto
