Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ronson Paracuelles, and I'm a trader and investor based in Hawaii. This is my living, bro, and I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me, and to society as a whole, as long as the rules are fair and targeted.
I rely on prediction markets to hedge real financial risks. Whether it's an election outcome that could impact my taxes or a Fed decision that messes with my investments, these markets let me protect myself in ways I can't elsewhere. This isn't gambling, no matter what some folks say. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or futures. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" (like in Questions 15-22) ignores their legitimate economic purpose. They're tools for price discovery and risk management, not slot machines.
I also value the information these markets provide. The prices often predict outcomes better than polls or pundits, especially for elections and public events. That helps me make smarter decisions, and it's good for everyone when better data is out there. On top of that, allowing regular people like me to participate keeps the system fair. If only big institutions can trade, they hoard all the insights. Informed trading by everyday folks improves price discovery, as mentioned in Questions 29-32, and benefits the whole market.
Now, I get the concerns about manipulation or insider trading. But the CFTC already has solid tools to tackle those issues, just like with other derivatives. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets isn't the answer. It just pushes activity to shady offshore platforms where there's no oversight. I'd much rather trade on a regulated market like Kalshi, where consumer protections are in place (like in Questions 7-14). Proportionate regulation, not broad bans, is the way to go. Focus on specific risks with targeted rules.
Lastly, the U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not falling behind. If we over-regulate, other countries will take the lead, and American traders like me get left out. I'm asking you to support sensible, balanced rules that keep prediction markets accessible and safe. Don't shut them down or make it impossible for regular folks to participate.
Mahalo for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Ronson Paracuelles
