Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Archan Sen, and I'm a software engineer from California. I work in tech, where data and information drive everything we do, and Im writing to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe strongly that information is power, and prediction markets democratize that power by giving everyone, not just elites, access to valuable insights.
I actively trade on regulated platforms like Kalshi, and I've seen firsthand how these markets provide forecasts that often beat polls or pundits. For elections or major public events, the aggregated wisdom in these prices is uncanny, and it helps me make sense of an uncertain world. Beyond forecasting, I use these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like potential policy changes that could impact my income or costs as a tech worker in a volatile industry. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, much like investing in stocks, and it serves a real economic purpose.
Im also concerned about access and fairness, which ties to your questions in Topic Area B (Public Interest, Questions 7-14). Banning or over-restricting prediction markets doesnt protect consumers; it pushes activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight. Regulated markets like Kalshi, under CFTC supervision, are far safer. Plus, the US should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. If we stifle this space, we lose both economic opportunity and better information for public decision-making.
On Topic Area E (Inside Information, Questions 29-32), I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery and benefits everyone, not just traders. The CFTC already has robust tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Use those existing powers rather than imposing broad bans that punish legitimate participants. And regarding Topic Area C (Listed Activities, Questions 15-22), event contracts shouldnt be labeled as gaming. Theyre tools for hedging and discovery, not bets.
As someone in tech, I also value the academic research behind prediction markets. Studies show they aggregate information efficiently, and that data transparency helps everyone, from individuals to policymakers. My ask is simple. Please regulate prediction markets in a targeted, proportionate way. Address specific risks like manipulation with focused rules, not categorical restrictions. Let regular people like me continue to participate in legal, regulated markets that provide real value.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Archan Sen
