Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Matthew Albear, and I'm just a regular citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for people like me. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets rather than over-restricting or banning them.
I first turned to prediction markets during the last election cycle because I was frustrated with how often polls and pundits got things wrong. The prices on these platforms gave me a clearer picture of what might actually happen, and I found that incredibly helpful for planning my own financial decisions. It's not just about elections, though. Public events, from policy changes to economic shifts, affect my day-to-day life, and prediction markets let me hedge some of that uncertainty. For example, Ive used them to offset risks tied to potential tax changes that could hit my budget hard. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and thought, just like any other investment.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. As a regular person, I don't have access to the insider info or high-powered tools that big institutions do. Prediction markets level the playing field a bit, letting me have a stake in understanding and anticipating events that impact my life. Shutting down or overly restricting these markets would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier. I've seen platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, and that regulation makes me feel safer knowing there are rules and accountability in place.
On the topic of risks, I understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, as raised in some of your questions like numbers 29 through 32. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these issues in other derivatives markets. There's no need to reinvent the wheel or ban entire categories of contracts. Just apply those existing safeguards here. Banning prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would hurt regular users like me while the real culprits find ways around the rules.
I also think the US should be a leader in financial innovation, not fall behind other countries. Your questions 7 through 14 about balancing innovation and consumer protection hit on this. If we over-regulate, we risk losing ground to places that welcome these markets. Let's keep the US at the forefront by fostering safe, regulated platforms.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while letting everyday people like me continue to benefit from these tools. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Matthew Albear
